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    Building an Expert-based Web Effort Estimation Model using Bayesian Networks

    13th International Conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering (EASE)

    Durham University, UK, 20 - 21 April 2009


    Emilia Mendes, Carmel Pollino, Nile Mosley


    Objective - The objective of this paper is to describe a case study where Bayesian Networks (BNs) were used to construct an expert-based Web effort model.

    Method - We built a single-company BN model solely elicited from expert knowledge, where the domain expert was an experienced Web project manager from a small Web company in Auckland, New Zealand. This model was validated using data from eight past finished Web projects.

    Results - The BN model has to date been successfully used to estimate effort for four Web projects, providing effort estimates superior to those based solely on expert opinion.

    Conclusions - Our results suggest that, at least for the Web Company that participated in this case study, the use of a model that allows the representation of uncertainty, inherent in effort estimation, can outperform expert-based estimates. Another five companies have also benefited from using Bayesian Networks, with very promising results.


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